Marketers see a lot of reports looking at last quarter or last year’s performance. That’s nice, but what we want to know is what’s coming next?
Today, at the Adobe Summit conference in Las Vegas, Nevada, Adobe principle analyst Tamara Gaffney gazed into the crystal ball to help marketers anticipate what will score big in the coming year.
Android OS TVs Will Cut Into Apple TV and Roku
Citing Adobe research, Gaffney noted that TV Everywhere is finally making a mark. After lazing for years with little consumer interest, TVE is starting to earn some traction. Sure, adoption is under 20 percent, but it’s growing fast. “Generation Z is getting addicted to digital video,” she said, noting strong online interest in programming for children and young adults, what she called “teens and toons.”
Roku had a lot of success in Q4 2015, largely because it released a 4K-compliant set-top box and Apple didn’t. But the OTT future doesn’t belong to either Apple or Roku, Gaffney said. Android OS TVs are coming this year, and they’re going to be a big disruptor to the connected TV space.
Content Context Will Be the New Mantra
Gaming is huge in online video—not playing, but watching others play. Generation Z is hooked on it, and what those viewers learn from gaming video stars will forever alter what they expect in video. Gen Z viewers come back to their favorite gaming video creators daily for new content. They won’t settle for one episode a week. Marketers need to follow this model, understanding how to attract viewers with entertaining content. Contextually relevant content remains king, Gaffney said. Mobile and TV operating systems will converge, and gaming models will present new opportunities for advertisers.
Looking at the mobile world, Gaffney said that Android devices will dominate the smartphone market. Apple is being undone by dealer trade-in programs. Previously, iPhone owners passed their old devices to friends and family members whey they got new ones. But trade-in programs take those phones out of circulation and lead to fewer iPhones in use.
Noting that members of generation Z don’t even see ads—they’ve grown up learning to tune them out—Gaffney predicted that awareness marketing will soon be over. Mobile pages are especially cluttered with ads, since mobile ads bring in fewer dollars and publishers need to sell more ads on each page. That clutter just leads to people tuning ads out (or using ad blockers).
Virtual reality will continue to grow, and will impact the B2B, healthcare, and gaming industries first. In healthcare, med students will practice surgeries without ever touching a patient.
The big marketing challenge in 2016 will be reassembling fractured identities, and it’s something marketers can’t do on their own, Gaffney said. The average consumer uses over three devices each day. Marketers need to piece those identities together to get a better view of consumer choices and behavior.